Lamar Jackson’s Rise to the Top: Analyzing QB success from a Fantasy Football Perspective
Among all the surprises this football season, perhaps the most remarkable has been Lamar Jackson’s success. Leading the Baltimore Ravens, ranked 17th by ESPN’s preseason power rankings, to a 9–2 record through 12 weeks is no small feat. The biggest question coming into this year was undoubtably Jackson’s ability to throw the ball. Jackson has always been able to scramble, accumulating nearly 700 rushing yards his rookie season, but suffered from an inability to complete passes and find the end zone with his arm. In 2019, Jackson is emerging as one of the premier passers in the NFL with twice as many passing yards, four times as many touchdowns thrown, and a passer rating 27 points higher than his rookie season.
In fantasy football, Lamar Jackson was nothing more than an afterthought coming into the draft. ESPN ranked Lamar as the 14th best quarterback, behind Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, and Cam Newton among others. Now, through 12 weeks, Jackson ranks second in fantasy points (PPR scoring) only trailing Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey. Jackson has had consistent volume running the ball; Jackson’s 124 rushing attempts are tops in the NFL for quarterbacks, and 41 more than second place Josh Allen. This amount of volume gets Jackson the rushing points of an RB1-RB2. However, Jackson’s passing volume has been minimal; his 299 attempts through 12 weeks ranks 24th in the NFL.
Jackson’s success passing the ball doesn’t come from volume, but rather efficiency.Here, we will be introducing the concept of Fantasy Points per Attempt (FPA). For our calculations, we will be using PPR scoring, which means 1 point per 25 yards passing, 4 points per passing touchdown, and -2 yards per interception thrown. A quarterback with a higher FPA is more efficient with their passes, and needs less volume to produce. The league average FPA through 2019 sits at 0.42, meaning for every pass thrown by a quarterback an average of 0.42 points are being generated per passing attempt. Jackson’s 2019 FPA is a whopping 0.61, nearly 50% above league average and the highest out of any quarterback with over 10 attempts. Below are the FPAs of 10 quarterbacks, including Jackson, for comparison.
The majority of Jackson’s success has come not from total yardage, but from his ability to extend plays and find the end zone. Jackson connects for a touchdown at an 8% clip, or roughly 1/12 passes thrown. To put that into perspective, the league average is around 4.4%, or less than 1/22 passes thrown. Jackson is able to reach these numbers because of the Ravens’ historical success with the running game and low turnover rate. The Ravens have run for a whopping 210 yards per game so far this year, with Jackson, Ingram II, and Edwards all contributing to the NFL’s best rushing offense. Jackson’s ability to scramble as well means he is able to force less throws, aiding his efficiency.
Can Jackson continue to be the best fantasy quarterback throughout the rest of the season? The numbers seem to indicate so. As long as Jackson’s running volume can stay consistent and the Ravens offense continues to be successful, Jackson’s production appear to be sustainable. The Ravens have scored on 42 of 104 drives so far this season, the highest percent of any NFL offense. Their balance between running and passing has driven Jackson’s high touchdown totals, and as long as the Ravens rushing attack doesn’t slow down Jackson should be able to maintain his passing efficiency. Thus, Jackson is a safe buy in fantasy going into playoffs.